28 November 2011

Marlyn Glen : Pensions and 30th. November





Pensions and 30th. November
Marlyn Glen

The “Daily Mail” couldn’t have put it better.
“State-owned Royal Bank of Scotland is to lavish around £500million in bonuses on its 'casino' bankers - despite a collapse in profits.
“Hundreds of traders and investment bankers who were bailed out by taxpayers at the height of the financial crisis are expected to walk off with pay and perks packages worth more than £1 million each.
“The huge handouts will fuel fury at City greed at a time when politicians and religious leaders are speaking out about corporate excess.”
(7th. November this year )
This is what others have described as “Socialism for the bankers” while its obverse, “capitalism for the workers” will be the cause of a massive national demonstration on Wednesday.
The moral debate is still about the reckless actions of those who were rewarded for failure, who required a large bonus simply to do their job, versus the rights of those who did not cause the financial crisis, but who are now being asked to work longer and to pay more to receive less of a pension as a result of it.
The political debate has been transformed into the hoary Tory myth of the “bloated” public sector with “gold-plated”, “unaffordable” pensions paid for by the taxpayer, and of Labour’s “rampant spending in office” , which was in fact vital to prop up the private banking sector from collapsing, an action repeated by other Governments .
Wednesday’s action has been described as a “women’s strike” and for good reason.
Almost two-thirds of public sector employees are women and when the public sector is hit hard by Tory cuts that are inevitably accompanied by punishing job losses, it’s women who suffer the most in terms of jobs, pay and pensions.
The Tory-led Government’s belief was that the clear out of jobs in the public sector would be the signal for the private sector to absorb these redundancies by creating more jobs for those losing theirs in the public sector.
That has never happened in any large measure - nor was it ever likely to - but for those that this has affected, it’s almost certainly meant a loss of pay for most of them.
The gross hourly rate for full-time women in the public sector is on average around £4.20p an hour higher than in the private sector.
The same rate for part-time female workers is on average £2.90p an hour greater in the public sector than in the private sector.
Added on to that disadvantage is what the TUC describe as “ a growing gap between public and private sector pensions caused by the employer retreat from decent pensions in the private sector”
Pension provision should include as one of its main objectives the levelling up of pensions in the private sector to those in the public sector.
It’s not about levelling down pensions in the public sector to the level of those in the private sector.
The claim about the “spiralling costs” making for unsustainable nature of public pensions is based on the belief that pension costs will absorb greater costs as more and more people live longer.
However, the UK Government’s Office of Budget Responsibility Fiscal Sustainability Report has already delved into the likely costs of pensions in the 2030s and the 2060s
It predicts that the cost of public pensions will have fallen to 1.8 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product by 2030 and will fall further still to 1.4 per cent by 2060.
As for “ gold-plated” pensions in the public sector, the average pension for women in the public sector is around £2,800 a year, and in the health service £3,500
Unions are angry about the claim of the Tory-led government that under their pension proposals, all those earning under £15,000 a year will see no increase in their pension contributions.
However, these figures refer to what a person would earn if they were working full-time in practice or in theory.
So a part-time worker earning £8,000 a year would not be exempt from increases in contributions because their “full-time pay” would be the equivalent of £16,000 a year, above the £15,000 threshold.
Employees face average increases of 3 per cent - a pay cut of 3 per cent by any other name -and the majority of these part-time workers are women.
Meanwhile, the TUC PensionsWatch reports that the directors of the top echelons of UK companies can expect average pension payments of almost £250,000 a year.
The report indicates that the leading 362 directors have stored up final salary pensions worth on average £3.9 million each.

Is there a particular Scottish dimension to the pensions issue?
The SNP Government believes that there is.
It is to debate the issue of pensions in the Scottish Parliament on Wednesday.
However, the entrance qualifications for anyone who wishes to participate in the debate is that they will firstly have to walk across the picket line at the Scottish Parliament.
Scottish Labour MSPs will be absent en masse from the Parliament on Wednesday along with the Scottish Green MSPs.
In his strong reproach of the SNP Government and its failure to listen to the voices of public sector unions to close down Holyrood next Wednesday, the Greens Parliamentary leader, Patrick Harvie, described it as “ an utterly cynical move”
He went further:
“On November 30th, the country will see the strongest wave of coordinated action for generations, all to challenge the UK Coalition’s ideological and counter-productive cuts. On that day, the SNP and the Coalition parties will sit together as an unholy alliance on the wrong side of the picket lines. Is this really what the SNP stand for now?
“No doubt there will be empty rhetoric from Ministers about supporting the right to strike – despite knowing that Parliament can only meet if employees and MSPs alike cross the picket lines.
“The SNP claim they’re on the other side of the argument from the Tories and LibDems.
“Wrong.
“The picket line is the argument, and the SNP have picked a side, the same side as the parties primarily responsible for this brutal attack on pay and pensions.
“The unions have been very clear about how MSPs can support them – by joining them at pickets and rallies right across the country. That’s the work we should be doing on November 30th.”
Patrick Harvie is the leader of a very different political party from that other one that is also in favour of an independent Scotland.

The pensions issue, like so many others, has its roots in the financial crisis of 2008.
Before then, the financial sector was revered for its “special place” in the economy and its “productive” risk-taking which entitled it to the jaw-dropping salaries and eye-watering bonuses.
However, Economics Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, puts it differently.
“It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that, by and large, the members of the super-elite are overpaid, not underpaid, for what they do.
“Very few of them are Steve Jobs-type innovators; most of them are corporate bigwigs and financial wheeler-dealers. One recent analysis found that 43 percent of the super-elite are executives at nonfinancial companies, 18 percent are in finance and another 12 percent are lawyers or in real estate. And these are not, to put it mildly, professions in which there is a clear relationship between someone’s income and his economic contribution.
“Executive pay, which has skyrocketed over the past generation, is famously set by boards of directors appointed by the very people whose pay they determine; poorly performing Chief Executives still get lavish paychecks, and even failed and fired executives often receive millions as they go out the door.
“Meanwhile, the economic crisis showed that much of the apparent value created by modern finance was a mirage. As the Bank of England’s director for financial stability recently put it, seemingly high returns before the crisis simply reflected increased risk-taking — risk that was mostly borne not by the wheeler-dealers themselves but either by naïve investors or by taxpayers, who ended up holding the bag when it all went wrong. And as he waspishly noted, ‘If risk-making were a value-adding activity, Russian roulette players would contribute disproportionately to global welfare.’ “

17 November 2011

Marlyn Glen : Dundee's Misery Index is over 10 per cent




Marlyn Glen
Dundee’s Misery Index is over 10 per cent
16 November 2011
There is such as thing as The Misery Index.
It’s the sum of the rate of unemployment plus the rate of inflation, and added together they give an indication of the financial misery that accompanies unemployment, under-employment and the fear of an uncertain future for individuals and their families.
Strictly speaking, the Misery Index applies only to countries.
However, taking some degree of licence to make a point, the Misery Index for Dundee would be 10.6 per cent just now ( 5.0 per cent rate of inflation last month plus the 5.6 per cent rate for unemployment in the city )
The overall rate of unemployment in Dundee masks its most troubling tale - the age 16-24 age group in the city has an 8 per cent unemployment rate, and in the past three and a half years, the number of unemployed in that important age group of future Dundonians, has risen from 945 to 1,605.
There are dire forecasts of more misery to come , in the day-to-day running of family budgets hit by rising food prices, higher energy and fuel costs, and particularly for women.
Many of them are now the breadwinner in the family, whether it be in full-time or in part-time work, and they face the horrendous odds.
That’s why the latest figures for those who are "economically inactive" in Dundee ( those) show that 3,600 such women in Dundee want a job.
The corresponding figure for men is less, at 3,200.
People who are "economically inactive" are generally speaking those are beyond retiral age, and those who cannot work for reasons such as illness, disability, or those who remain at home to look after family.
Family responsibilities are the most common reason given for women being economically inactive.
The increase in the number of women in receipt of Job Seekers Allowance in Dundee since last June is greater than in men, 365 to 312, probably reflecting in part changes in the Lone Parent Obligation.
Women make up the majority of employees in the public sector, such as the NHS, education, local councils, and it is this sector that is being targeted and shredded in this recession.
Women’s working skills are needed now as much as they were in the past.
The number of nursing and midwifery staff in NHS Tayside is now the lowest in 5 years .
The number of school teachers in secondary schools in Dundee is now at its lowest since 2005, almost two-thirds of whom are women
The number of school teachers in primary schools in Dundee is now at its lowest since 2005, 90 per cent of whom are women.
It doesn’t have to be like this.
A view from America ( current Misery Index of 13) - an editorial in the "New York Times" - "Britain’s self-inflicted Misery" - lays the blame forcibly and truly where it belongs :
"Austerity was a deliberate ideological choice by Prime Minister David Cameron’s ruling coalition of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, elected 17 months ago. It has failed and can be expected to keep failing. But neither party is yet prepared to acknowledge that reality and change course.
Britain’s economy has barely grown since the budget cuts began taking effect late last year. The most recent quarterly figures showed the economy flat-lining, with growth at 0.1 percent.
New figures reported Britain’s highest jobless numbers in more than 15 years. Independent analysts expect unemployment — now 8.1 percent — to keep rising in the months ahead. The government has kept its promise to slash public-sector jobs — more than 100,000 have been lost in recent months. But its deficit-reduction policies have failed to revive the business confidence that was supposed to spur private-sector hiring.
Drastic public spending cuts were the wrong deficit-reduction strategy for the weakened British economy a year ago. … Britain’s unhappy experience is further evidence that radical reductions in spending will do little but stifle economic recovery.
Slashing government spending in an already stalled economy weakens anemic demand, leading to lost output and lost tax revenues. As revenues fall, deficit reduction requires longer, deeper spending cuts. Cut too far, too fast, and the result is not a balanced budget but a lost decade of no growth. That could now happen in Britain. .
Austerity is a political ideology masquerading as an economic policy. It rests on a myth, impervious to facts, that portrays all government spending as wasteful and harmful, and unnecessary to the recovery. The real world is a lot more complicated. America has no need to repeat Mr. Cameron’s failed experiment. "
One of the band of economists who predicted the banking crash and the extent of the present recession ,and an ex-member of the Bank of England’s interest rate committee was by David Blanchflower, who has studied the long -term effects of unemployment on young people.
He looked at data from the National Child Development Study, which examined the lives of children born in one particular week in 1958.
He found that while those in their early 20s who had lost their jobs in the late 1970s and early 1980s managed to make good again, the pyschological mark of being without a job in the earlier years remained with many of them, in some cases into their mid-forties.
They were more likely to be earning less than those with uninterrupted employment and they were less likely to be healthy and happy with their work.
Below are some figures for levels of unemployment in Dundee across all age groups in that same period :
If David Blanchflower’s argument is correct, the question arises, how many amongst those who were born in the late 1950s and who lost their jobs in the 1970s and 80s felt the effect of its misery into their middle aged years, and still feel it even today?

.
Year Average Number unemployed in Dundee
1979 8,668
1980 10,861
1981 14,723
1982 15,611
1983 15,943
1984 16,423

3 November 2011

"Nurses " at breaking point









Nurses "at breaking point"
NHS Tayside revenue budget forecast to increase by just over 1 per cent
Marlyn Glen
3 November 2011



In these times of diminished hopes, the fears of dedicated but demoralised nursing staff in the NHS were revealed a few weeks ago by RCN Scotland’s survey of members.
It showed that only 30 per cent of nursing and healthcare support staff felt that their job was "secure". This was a drop of over 40 per cent compared with the 74 per cent recorded two years ago.
Furthermore, under 40 per cent would recommend nursing as a career, compared with 54 per cent in 2009.
Nursing staff were described as being " at breaking point".
The doctors’ professional body, BMA Scotland, stated last month that the NHS in Scotland was braced for "unprecedented " reductions in budgets in real terms money, and that the "rising costs of health inflation could jeopardise the range and quality of services the NHS currently provides.
"It is vital that the Scottish government and managers take a long-term view for the NHS and work with health professionals to identify how services can be made more efficient and where cuts should be made without compromising patient care."
The Scottish Government has a different perception of the condition of the health service from those who work in it and use it day-by-day.
Thus, First Minister Alex Salmond claimed in June,
"Even in these difficult times, health employment in every single category—through medical consultants, general practitioners, dentists and nurses to allied health professionals—is substantially up today on the level that we inherited in 2007".
Unfortunately for Mr. Salmond, the figures on the NHS say something different.
The Scottish Government’s own database states that details of the number of general practitioners and dentists employed " is currently unavailable due to changes in methodology and data quality issues"
The figures for the total NHS workforce minus GPs and dentists shows that in the past 4 years it has risen from 130,245 to 131,914 - just a 1 per cent increase - "substantially up today on the level that we inherited in 2007"?
The same database shows that there are now over 360 fewer nursing and midwifery staff in the NHS in Scotland than there were when Mr Salmond became First Minister.
In fact, in each of the past two years, the number of total NHS staff has fallen, and the Scottish Government’s own figures also show that some 2,300 posts in the NHS in Scotland will go in this financial year.
These same figures on staffing, this time for NHS Tayside, tell a different tale as well from the "substantially up" story.
According to them, the number of nursing and midwifery staff in NHS Tayside has decreased by 21 ( full-time equivalents) and is not "substantially up" since Mr. Salmond became First Minister.




In NHS Tayside in "Allied Health Professionals", a category quoted by the First Minister, there has been a average rise of just 5 more staff in each of the past 4 years from a base of 803 - "substantially up on the level that we inherited in 2007"?
Some Allied Health Professionals in NHS Tayside have fallen in number.
In Occupational Therapy there are 23 fewer compared with 2007.
Over recent months ( March to June), there have been a fall in the number of staffing posts in Dietetics, Orthotics, and Therapeutic Radiography.
In the past 2 years, 12 posts have been lost in physiotherapy.
We are constantly told by Scottish Government Health Ministers that they are now providing "record funding" for the NHS.
The same can be said of generally of employers who are providing "record wages" for their employees.
However, do these "record wages" keep up with those record prices in the shops , in energy bills and transport costs?
It’s when the Scottish Government’s "record funding" is scrutinised in this light that the real picture emerges.
The Scottish Government’s " Spending Review and Draft Budget for 2012-13" provides its preliminary ( but not finalised) figures for NHS expenditure till 2014-15.
The total expenditure , in real terms, taking inflation into account, is forecast to fall by £319 million by then.
To give just a few possibilities in individual specialities, in real terms expenditure ,
General Medical Services face a cut of £53 million
General Dental Services face a cut of £30 million
Ophthalmic Services face a cut of £7 million
Nursing Education and training face a cut of over £11 million
Clean Hospitals/MRSA Screening face a cut by £2million
Alcohol Misuse programmes face a cut by £3 million
NHS Tayside’s initial revenue allocation budget, currently just under £600 million a year, is anticipated to increase by less than £1 million in real terms in the coming year, an increase of just 1 per cent.
By 2014-15, it will rise by just over £6 million in real terms on the initial budget to just over £600 million. Over the four year period, the overall rise will be just over 1 per cent.
However, health service inflation costs - drugs and equipment in particular - are currently running at around 4 per cent.
On top of that are the "efficiency savings" .
These are serious financial demands.
3 per cent "efficiency savings" were ordered from budgets this year, with no real let up forecast for future years.
The Christie Commission reported on the struggle that the public sector services such as the NHS have in meeting increased demand, chiefly from an ageing population and chronic health problems , while the Scottish Government has set itself upon a low-taxation policy.
The Commission estimates that the shortfall in funding to meet this demand could rise to £3 billion by the middle of this decade.
It said,
"Our public services are now facing their most serious challenges since the inception of the welfare state.
"This rising demand for public services will take place in an environment of constrained public spending.
"In the absence of a willingness to raise new revenue through taxation, public services will have to achieve more with less."
This means nursing and other clinical posts vacancies being left unfilled and the re-deployment of existing staff.
It means front-line posts disappearing.
It doesn’t mean that the same standard of service for patients can be provided with fewer staff.
This is what happens when the Scottish Government’s core policy is a 5-year council tax freeze which no one knows how it can be paid for.
A sweetshop without prices.